Position Sizing: Key to Maximizing Returns

In a time when market volatility and equity preservation is of utmost importance, determining the correct number of shares to buy, or “position sizing”, is key to maximizing returns and minimizing risk.

The common investor generally doesn’t spend much time thinking about how many shares to buy or how significant of a position to take.  Instead, most investors use a common methodology of trading the same number of shares each time, which usually translates to a specific dollar amount.  Other, more sophisticated investors, opt to allocate a certain percentage of their portfolio value to a specific position. Following this train of thought, a new position in a portfolio of $100,000 would transcribe either a $10,000, or 10%, investment or a usual position of 50 shares.

Although these methods may work for some, using the volatility of a specific portfolio is likely to be the most effective decision tool.  Measuring a portfolio’s overall volatility enables an investor to decide on what percentage of that portfolio he is willing to risk losing on the new position.  This methodology is better explained through the following example.

Know when to Hold ‘em, Know when to Fold ‘em

SmartStops comment:   Its why this service was brought to fruition.  Follow SmartStops and you can be protected before you lose it all. 

Unprecedented Monthly Volume Sell-Off Suggests Now’s the Time to Take Shelter - published at Minyanville by Kevin A. Tuttle

Do not concern yourself if the market goes up today, tomorrow, or a month from now. The risk of entering is not worth the reward.

Over the weekend I had the pleasure of speaking with a very prominent European money manager – overseeing hundreds of billions – about the “across-the-pond” financial crisis unwind and looming hazard of a potential domino-effect coming to fruition. Without rehashing the entire conversation, the consensus is not “if,” it’s “when” will the developing pressure finally blow. He actually went so far as to say it could truly begin unraveling within the next few weeks considering the catalysts currently in play.

The intent of providing the conversation synopsis is not for sake of fear, but understanding the potential ramifications. About three years ago, in one of my firm’s quarterly reports, we opined on a unique situation in regard to the GDP measurements of Global Nations. It stated the unprecedented growth statistics from the 56 nations tracked. “History is currently being made in the sense that all the globally tracked economic growth nations (56), every one… 100%…, are showing expansion.” This lead to my next comment… “If the economic cycle pendulum swings in both directions what would happen if the inverse occurred?” Are 2011/2012 the years we are about to find out? Maybe that’s somewhat extreme, but yet… is it possible?

We at my firm do not pretend to be intelligent enough to figure out all the nuances, catalysts, causes and reasons why the markets could fall apart; we’ll leave it to the team of economists and officials to attempt to sort that out. What we do instead is try to determine when the storm is coming and how to take shelter, which brings me to my point: Now is the time. Take shelter! Do not concern yourself if the market goes up today, tomorrow or a month from now. Clarity is key! Would you sail your boat into rocky waters with a potential hurricane looming because of your love of sailing? Is the risk worth the reward? For some, maybe; but for most, probably not.

S&P 500 Index

Since the “2011 Channel of Indecision” broke on August 4, the seas have picked up dramatically and have begun swallowing ships. The markets have never seen this type of monthly volume sell-off – 47% above average (unprecedented), as seen in the monthly chart above. As Kenny Rogers put it so eloquently… “Know when to hold em’ and know when to fold em’, know when to walk away, know when to run!”

Three ETFs Potentially Impacted By Floods In Brazil

Brazil is currently suffering from of one its worst ever natural disasters after extensive rainfall and flooding has caused massive mudslides and killed many people, potentially having an impact on production of coffee and sugar in Latin America’s largest economy.

According to BBC News, harsh storms in the nation dumped the equivalent of one month’s rainfall in just a few hours on Wednesday, sending mudslides ragging through towns, destroying homes, roads, and bridges, while taking out power and telephone lines.  Worst of all, municipal offices in the Serrana region, just north of Rio de Janeiro, have reported that death tolls as a result of the mudslides have surpassed the 500 mark and continue to grow. 

4 Reasons Gold ETFs Are Expected To Keep Luster

As gold continues to oscillate ahead and below the $1,400 per ounce mark, some suggest that the precious metal could be in a bubble, but there are four reasons the metal is likely to sustain its price levels in the near future.

First, gold continues to be the ultimate safe haven in times of uncertainty.  The US economy is showing signs of recovery, but at a slow and steady pace.  The most recent data that illustrates this is a report by the Labor Department which indicated that US employers added fewer than expected jobs last month and payroll counts increased by 103,000 last week as opposed to the 150,000 expected by analysts.  To put it into perspective, these numbers resulted in Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke to state that it would take “four to five more years” for the labor markets to completely heal.

Four ETFs Impacted By Increasing Food Prices

The global price of food continues to increase illustrated by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s monthly food price index rising to 214.7, the sixth consecutive month that the index has risen as supply and demand  imbalances continue to take their toll on food prices. 

Demand for food continues to rise as wealth in developing nation like China, India and Brazil has elevated food consumption as consumers in these nations starve of their traditional eating habits and seek more of a Western-style diet. This elevated demand, combined with supply constraints, has provided positive price support to commodities like corn, wheat, coffee and cotton and cooking oils.

5 Copper ETFs Poised For Growth In 2011

In 2010, copper locked in a second consecutive annual gain of nearly 33 percent as demand remained elevated due to growth in emerging markets and a weak dollar.  As for the future of the industrial metal, copper’s outlook remains rosy as a supply and demand imbalance is expected to take place providing positive price support to the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX), the iPath Dow Jones Copper Index ETN (JJC), the First Trust ISE Global Copper Index Fund (CU), the PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB) and the iShares MSCI Chile Index (ECH).

According to the International Copper Study Group, a copper deficit of 435,000 metric tons in 2011 is expected to emerge in the markets, marking the first deficit in three years, during which global production has averaged 18 million tons.  On the demand side, one of the primary driver’s of increased demand is economic expansion in emerging markets.  The developing world is expected to at the forefront of global economic growth and with this the need for improved infrastructure and increased construction and manufacturing is expected to keep demand for copper, which is used in electrical wiring, plumbing and in heating and cooling systems, elevated.   

Looming Sugar Shortage Launches Sugar ETFs

On Friday, concerns over future supplies of sugar pushed prices up to their highest levels since November 10^th as inclement weather in the US and declining output in Brazil pave the path to projected shortages on the supply side of the commodity. 

Mother Nature is delivering one of the coldest weathers in the past decade throughout parts of the United States causing freezing temperatures in Florida to severely damage sugarcane crops and limit future production of sugar. 

Three ETFs Impacted By US-South Korea Trade Agreement

The United States and South Korea agreed to modify a free-trade agreement, which, upon execution, will be the largest value of trade volume in the world since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) paving the path to opportunity for the iShares MSCI South Korea Index (EWY), the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) and the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Livestock Subindex Total Return ETN (COW).

More specifically, the amendments to the trade agreement includes new steps to open up South Korea’s auto market to US producers by enabling 25,000 vehicles to enter South Korea based on US safety standards.   Furthermore, the United States is allowed to keep a 2.5% tariff on Korean-built cars for five more years, which will eventually be cut, and a 25 percent tariff on trucks until the eight year and eliminate the duty in the tenth year of the pact.   

Three ETFs To Play Rising Grain Prices

Heavy rain in Australia and dry weather in the US are expected to take its toll on global grain production, pushing prices up and providing positive support to the iPath DJ-UBS Grains TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJG), the ELEMENTS MLCX Grains Index TR ETN (GRU) and the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA).

To further add to grain’s appeal, the supply and demand imbalances of global grains are expected to widen as competition amongst major crops for limited acreage amplifies, weather conditions continue to take their toll on global production and demand increases due to population growth and increased global wealth.   In fact, the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization expects global wheat stock levels to drop by 10% from last year to 181 million tons. 

India Supply Concerns Boost Sugar ETFs

Heavy rainfall and inclimate weather have taken its toll on India’s second largest producing state having many investors worried that global supply for sugar will not meet demand sending prices higher and providing positive price support to the iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Idx ETN (SGG), the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) and the UBS E-TRACS CMCI Agriculture TR ETN (UAG).

Elevated demand for sugar has resulted in a diminishing supply of global sugar stock levels, pushing levels to their lowest point in 20 years and prices of raw sugar prices back up towards their 30-year high levels.  Furthermore, yields in Uttar Pradesh, which is India’s second largest sugar producing state, have been cut enhancing fears that India may not produce the expected 25 million ton crop that the global market place has been hoping for, reports Caroline Henshaw of the Wall Street Journal.